AGP Executive Report

Election Campaign: Serbia heads toward the October 25 parliamentary vote amid deep polarisation. Political scientist Dušan Vučićević says turnout of 4.3–4.4 million could create conditions for a change of government, while President Aleksandar Vučić predicts his list will win an outright majority. Belgrade Investigation: Prosecutors have opened a preliminary investigation into Mayor Aleksandar Šapić over alleged violence after a city councillor said he broke her nose; Šapić has denied the accusation. Media Freedom: Journalists’ groups warn that efforts to replace editors at Nova could weaken independent coverage before election day, as concerns grow over pressure on Serbia’s remaining independent media. SPS Divisions: More officials have left the Socialist Party, including former deputy leader Ivan Đoković, deepening a split in the party two weeks before the vote. Work and Wages: A survey found 16% of Serbian employees are seriously worried about losing their jobs, while many companies have cut benefits or raised demands on workers.

Election Watch: Serbia’s 25 October snap election is taking shape amid warnings of a polarized campaign. The electoral commission puts the voter count at 6,450,523, while European observers are preparing to assess the voting environment. Activists from the Movement of United Phantoms say police detained two members during an SNS rally in Zrenjanin; police have not responded in the reports provided. Aleksandar Vučić, now campaigning to become prime minister, says he would spend most of his time addressing everyday problems across the country. EU and Kosovo: Serbia was left out of new EU membership roadmaps, as EU accession remains a point of tension in the campaign. Interior Minister Ivica Dačić’s claim that Serbia’s flag would one day fly over Prizren drew a warning from former German minister Michael Roth, who said such rhetoric risks renewed conflict. Sport: Serbian 3x3 side Liman won the Aichi Challenger in Japan, beating Shanghai 21–17 in the final, while top-ranked Serbian team Ub suffered an early exit in Bucharest.

Election Campaign: Serbia’s October 25 parliamentary vote is drawing fresh scrutiny: the election commission set the voter roll at 6.45 million despite members’ concerns about inconsistencies, and rejected students’ objections over overseas voting. Student-list representatives say they will appeal. Campaign Tensions: Police detained two Movement of United Phantoms activists at a Vučić rally in Zrenjanin, the group said, alleging they were held until it ended and others were blocked from moving freely. Kosovo: Interior Minister Ivica Dačić said Serbia’s flag would one day fly over Prizren. Kosovo condemned the remarks, while former German minister Michael Roth warned they risked renewed conflict. EU Relations: Serbia was left out of the EU’s latest membership roadmaps, as the country’s European path remains a campaign issue.

Election Day: Polling stations opened across Serbia, with observers in Šabac, Valjevo, Loznica and Mali Zvornik reporting orderly voting and no irregularities at the sites they visited. EU Relations: Brussels has left Serbia out of new membership roadmaps for four candidate countries, saying Belgrade must make more progress, including aligning its foreign policy with the bloc. Kosovo Tensions: Kosovo says Milan Radoičić’s appearance beside Danilo Vučić at an SNS rally reinforces its claim that Serbia was involved in the 2023 Banjska attack. Radoičić has admitted leading the armed group, but remains in Serbia, where he faces no charges over the attack. Political Climate: A student-list rally in Niš focused on health, the economy and education, and backed an actor whose son says SNS activists beat him outside the National Theatre. Sport: Novak Djokovic’s Shanghai campaign ended with a 6-4, 6-3 loss to Hubert Hurkacz, days after winning the China Open; he said he would rest and prepare for the indoor season.

Election Campaign: ODIHR says Serbia’s campaign is marked by polarization, reported intimidation and concerns over voter pressure, public resources, media independence and the accuracy of the voters’ register ahead of the October 25 election. Banjska Case: A man wanted over the 2023 armed attack in Kosovo was filmed beside Danilo Vučić at an SNS rally in Kragujevac. Milan Radoičić has admitted organizing the armed group but remains at liberty in Serbia. Political Culture: The Blacklist festival, launched by artists who say government criticism has cost them work and funding, will bring free events to more than 25 Serbian cities from October 14. Serbian Sport: Novak Djokovic lost 6-4, 6-3 to Hubert Hurkacz in his first Shanghai Masters match, days after winning the China Open in Beijing.**

Tennis: Novak Djokovic was knocked out of the Shanghai Masters by Hubert Hurkacz, losing in straight sets after his China Open triumph; he says he hopes to return at the Paris Masters in November. Election Watch: Serbia’s commission has approved 18 lists for the October 25 parliamentary election. Disputes over overseas voting arrangements and calls for election observers are adding to scrutiny, while 13 Socialist Party members in Belgrade have quit ahead of the vote. Economy: The National Bank of Serbia kept its benchmark rate at 5.75%, citing inflation and international risks; it expects inflation to approach 4% and growth to reach at least 3.2% this year. Football: UEFA fined Serbia’s football federation €89,500 over crowd discrimination, inappropriate messages, a pitch invasion and pyrotechnics, and imposed a stadium ban. Travel: Air Serbia reported a record third quarter, carrying 1,737,977 passengers.

Election Watch: Serbia’s electoral commission approved 18 lists with 2,418 candidates for the October 25 snap vote. Overseas voting arrangements remain contentious: polling hours will follow Serbia’s time zone, prompting concerns about access for voters abroad. Media Pressure: Nova staff protested the appointment of a new editor-in-chief by the outlet’s owner, raising fresh concerns about editorial independence ahead of the election. Women in Politics: A ZLF councilor in Pančevo says she has faced years of pressure; her party condemned an SNS official’s sexist T-shirt targeting her at a council meeting. Campaign Trail: An SNS rally in Kragujevac forced a memorial volleyball tournament to move its opening games to another hall. Energy: Serbia says work will begin next week on the first section of its gas interconnector with North Macedonia, a 145-kilometre project planned to carry up to 1.5 billion cubic metres annually. Business: Air Serbia reported a record third quarter, carrying 1.74 million passengers, up 6.5% from a year earlier. Tennis: Novak Djokovic exited the Shanghai Masters in the second round, losing 6-4, 6-3 to Hubert Hurkacz three days after winning his seventh China Open title.

Election Watch: Serbia’s October 25 snap vote is under scrutiny, with CRTA reporting 203 cases of negative campaigning, obstruction and violence in 45 municipalities. An election commissioner says missing government data and the placement of 93 overseas polling stations may hinder diaspora voters; the European Parliament has yet to receive an invitation to observe. Media and Campaign: CRTA says opposition lists received half as much TV coverage as ruling parties, while government-aligned outlets repeatedly warned of election-day chaos. The SNS has accused CRTA of campaigning for student candidates. EXPO 2027: The project has become a campaign flashpoint: opposition figures promise to halt it and examine contracts, while the government presents it as a development plan. Transport: Hungary has completed safety testing on its section of the Budapest–Belgrade railway, with passenger services expected to begin in December. Kosovo: Justina Shiroka-Pula’s election as president has ended a prolonged political deadlock, though a disputed law curbing the powers of the Hague war-crimes court is an early test.

Election Watch: Serbia’s October 25 parliamentary vote is under scrutiny, with watchdog CRTA alleging intimidation, unlawful surveillance and electoral manipulation. It says about 22,000 citizens abroad may be unable to vote because polling stations are limited. Thirty-seven former diplomats backed serving colleagues’ objections to the overseas voting arrangements. Campaign Tensions: SNS supporters clashed during campaigning in Belgrade’s Konjarnik neighbourhood, amid recent confrontations between ruling-party and Student List supporters. EXPO 2027: SNS leader Miloš Vučević rejected opposition talk of cancelling the Belgrade event, calling it a major economic and infrastructure opportunity. Rail Links: Safety-system testing is complete on the Hungarian stretch of the Budapest–Belgrade railway; international passenger services are planned for December, pending final work and approvals. Missing Persons: In Baku, Serbian officials called for renewed cooperation to determine the fate of more than 9,500 people still listed as missing from the conflicts in the former Yugoslavia.

Election Tensions: Students are challenging Serbia’s election commission over rules for diaspora voting, saying they could make it harder for citizens abroad to cast ballots in the October 25 election. The media regulator has also opened proceedings against six TV stations over broadcasts allegedly using minors for political purposes. Energy Links: Serbia plans to start laying pipes next week for its gas interconnector with North Macedonia, aiming to finish the project in early 2028; unresolved land issues could affect the schedule. EU Path: The European Commission’s new enlargement plans name four countries for upcoming road maps, but not Serbia, underscoring the distance still to go on its membership path. Airport Disruption: A failure in passenger-flow systems at Belgrade’s Nikola Tesla Airport triggered extraordinary checks, crowded security areas and temporary flight suspensions. Tennis: Novak Djokovic won a record seventh China Open title after Alex de Minaur retired injured, giving the Serbian his 102nd ATP singles crown.

Election Watch: Tensions flared between ruling-party and student-list supporters in Belgrade’s Konjarnik district, with videos appearing to show assaults and baton swings before police separated the groups. Separately, a report found more than 500,000 voters listed without a street name or number, raising concerns about the accuracy of the electoral roll. Energy Security: Serbia’s fuel reserves cover 51 days of net imports, short of the 90-day requirement, according to Energy Community data. Work on the Serbia–North Macedonia gas link is due to begin next week. Batajnica: The Defence Ministry says charges have been filed against two YouTubers who entered a fenced section of the military airport. It says the area is inactive and the aircraft shown are decommissioned; the ministry also accused media outlets of sensationalism. EU Path: Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said Serbia must take concrete steps after the election, particularly on aligning with EU foreign policy. Sport: Novak Djokovic claimed a record seventh China Open title after Alex de Minaur retired injured in the final.

China Open Glory: Novak Djokovic won his record-extending seventh China Open title in Beijing after Alex de Minaur retired injured in the final, keeping an unbeaten 34-match run at the tournament and taking his 102nd career trophy. UEFA Probe in Serbia: UEFA opened an investigation into a tunnel bust-up during the Ireland–Israel Nations League match in Bačka Topola after an alleged spitting incident, appointing an ethics and disciplinary inspector. Kosovo Politics: Kosovo’s parliament elected economist Justina Shiroka Pula as largely ceremonial president, narrowly avoiding another snap election amid a deal over limiting the powers of the Hague war-crimes court. Energy Links: Serbia, Greece, Bulgaria and North Macedonia agreed in Belgrade to strengthen regional energy connectivity, including expansion of the Vertical Gas Corridor and a possible Thessaloniki–Skopje–Niš oil-products route. Belgrade Assembly Tension: The opposition left a Belgrade City Assembly session after an incident involving Aleksandar Šapić and councilor Tatjana Mićić, with medical reports citing injuries and calls for a dedicated follow-up session.

Tennis Spotlight: Novak Djokovic won his record-extending 7th China Open title in Beijing, beating Alex de Minaur after the Australian retired with a groin injury in the second set, extending Djokovic’s perfect 34-0 run at the tournament and his 102nd tour-level trophy. UEFA Discipline: UEFA opened an investigation into a tense Ireland–Israel Nations League clash in Serbia after reports of an alleged tunnel incident at halftime, appointing an ethics and disciplinary inspector. Elections & Voting Access: Serbia’s electoral commission approved 19 lists for the Oct. 25 polls (one withdrawn), while criticism grows over diaspora voting conditions and missing polling stations abroad. Politics: Aleksandar Vučić said there will be no talks about federalisation or “destruction of Serbia,” adding discussions can focus on infrastructure in northern regions. Business & Jobs: Austrian Post completed its acquisition of Serbian parcel operator D Express, starting phased integration of delivery networks. Labor Shock: Subotica’s “8. Mart” sock factory bankruptcy left 150+ workers without jobs and unpaid wages.

China Open Drama: Novak Djokovic reached the Beijing final after Daniil Medvedev was disqualified for accidentally hitting a spectator with a ball in the semi-final, with Djokovic set to face Alex de Minaur for the title. Kosovo Court Tensions: In Pristina, police clashed with protesters after Kosovo’s parliament stalled changes to limit the powers of a Hague-based war crimes court, leaving dozens injured and the unrest continuing. Serbia-EU Football Fallout: Ireland and Israel’s Nations League meeting in Serbia ended 1-1 amid allegations of spitting and other incidents, with both sides again using black armbands and refusing handshakes. Energy Cooperation: Serbia is hosting energy ministers from Serbia, Greece, North Macedonia and Bulgaria to discuss regional gas and power connectivity, including steps to strengthen supply routes. Public Finance Watch: Serbia’s public debt rose to 41.93 billion euros at end-August, about 43.3% of GDP. Diplomacy: Serbia’s caretaker foreign minister Marko Đurić held first bilateral political consultations with the UAE, focusing on deepening ties and energy cooperation.

Tennis Spotlight: Novak Djokovic roared past Alexander Zverev at the China Open in Beijing, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, extending a 32-match winning streak and setting up a semifinal with Daniil Medvedev after Medvedev was disqualified for hitting a spectator with a ball. Serbia-Russia Ties: Aleksandar Vučić sent Vladimir Putin a birthday message, stressing continued support for Serbia’s gas security and “traditional friendship.” Tech & Business: Serbia’s Chamber of Commerce chief Marko Cadez urged startups to apply for the SEE 100 programme for GITEX AI Belgrade during EXPO 2027, promising hundreds of B2B meetings. Human Rights: Armenia’s human rights defender Anahit Manasyan met Serbia’s justice minister Nenad Vujić to discuss detention conditions, children’s rights, and cooperation. Energy Preparedness: An Energy Community expert said Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia lead on oil-crisis readiness thanks to legislation and physical stocks. Politics Abroad Voting: Serbia’s electoral commission set overseas polling hours for Oct. 25, drawing criticism that night voting makes expatriate voting harder. Regional Politics: Bosnia’s elections boosted nationalist parties, with Milorad Dodik’s ally Zeljka Cvijanović leading the Serb seat.

Serbia in the spotlight at UEFA Nations League: The Netherlands beat Serbia 2-1, with Teun Koopmeiners and Joshua Zirkzee scoring and Mihajlo Spasojevic replying for Serbia, leaving the Dutch top of the group while Serbia sit bottom. Ireland–Israel row in Serbia: Republic of Ireland and Israel drew 1-1 behind closed doors in Backa Topola, but the match was overshadowed by fresh allegations of spitting, a chaotic press conference, and UEFA stepping in after Israeli journalists were banned from briefings. Bosnia politics after elections: Nationalist parties consolidated power in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with Denis Becirovic, Zeljka Cvijanovic and Darijana Filipovic set for the tripartite presidency as turnout hit a record low of 41.5%. Nations League shake-up: Portugal sealed quarter-final qualification with a 2-1 win over Norway, while Greece held Germany 0-0, keeping qualification hopes in their own hands. Remembering Biljana Plavsic: Convicted war criminal and former Bosnian Serb leader Biljana Plavsic died in Belgrade at 96.